Tapping into the expertise and perspective of Highland Advocacy Group’s network of over 500 bipartisan, in-state operatives, “View from the States” offers you periodic insights into important local trends often overlooked by Inside-the-Beltway “conventional wisdom.”
As the 2024 campaigns begin their stretch run, we will look at key swing states, and how this November will impact next year and beyond. (If you missed the last one, see what our network of in-state operatives expect in Ohio.)
How the Race for White House could affect the PA State House
The “Keystone State” will earn its nickname this year: Both parties see Pennsylvania once again as a critical battleground.
Many pundits thought Harris would tap Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate. While vice presidential nods historically haven’t helped carry swing states, Highland’s in-state sources believe Shapiro’s savvy understanding of PA’s politics could have all but banked Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes. But even without an official spot on the ballot, word is that Shapiro will be a key ally this fall for Democrats seeking both national and state offices.
Since Harris supplanted Scranton’s own President Joe Biden, our operatives have not yet seen the infrastructure necessary for a robust GOP turnout operation (though there is an effort to recruit election monitors to combat alleged voter fraud). Meanwhile, Harris has consolidated support in the suburban counties around Philadelphia that may decide the entire race.
In the eastern part of the state, key counties to watch will include Lackawanna and Luzerne (much of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area) and Bucks County (which has long had a powerful county Republican committee). In the west, Allegheny and Butler counties have proven vital for both Trump’s 2016 upset and Biden’s 2020 victory. By the way, each of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties has autonomy to run elections as they choose – which may mean a late night waiting for election returns.
Because those counties are also home to some important state house races (more on those in a moment), the presidential outcomes may create down-ballot consequences. If Trump craters, it may keep Republicans out of the state house as well as the White House.
U.S. Senate: Scranton vs. Stamford?
As with Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. may face his most difficult reelection environment this year; His previous campaigns in 2006, 2012, and 2018 coincided with national Democratic waves. While polls have had him consistently under 50%, Republican challenger David McCormick has failed to gain ground.
In a race dominated by negative ads – each side is on the airwaves attacking the other on fentanyl and immigration – in-state operatives expect Casey to hang on due to the strength of his deep roots within the state. Casey’s father was a popular moderate Democrat governor from 1987 through 1995; his family has deep ties in the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area. McCormick, who moved into the state from Connecticut, remains dogged by accusations of carpetbagging that helped foil him in his 2022 primary race against Dr. Oz.
Not everyone can make the Connecticut-to-Pennsylvania transition as easily as Andy Bernard.
GOP Pickup Opportunities: State House and AG
Currently, Democrats hold a one-seat majority in the state house, while Republicans have a more comfortable 28-22 seat majority in the Senate. (Currently, the Pennsylvania legislature is the only divided body in the country.)
Operatives on the ground report that Republicans currently look favorable to flip a group of about seven to eight suburban house districts near Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Scranton. These sources expect these races to come down to margins of mere hundreds (or fewer) of votes each. This is where a big Harris win could create coattails just long enough for Democrats to hold the chamber. (Our sources do not believe the state senate is in play.)
Popular as he may be, that will force Shapiro to work across the aisle on a few key issues when the new legislative term begins – particularly issues surrounding taxation and spending. Pennsylvania’s “Rainy Day Fund” is set to run out by 2026 or 2027 at current spending levels.
The legislature is also expected to look at regulating (and taxing) skill game machines that have become popular within the state. As many as 80,000-120,000 machines are active across the state; our in-state sources suggest legislators may look to them as a chance to raise $500 million or more in additional revenues.
Republicans currently hold two of the three statewide offices up this fall (Treasurer and Auditor General) but hope York County District Attorney Dave Sunday can defeat former Auditor General Eugene DePasquale. Highland’s in-state contacts report that outside interest and funding are high because previous AGs have gained reputations for pursuing activist agendas through the office. Republicans have traditionally used the office as a springboard for a gubernatorial race – but they haven’t held it since 2010.
The Pennsylvania’s Gov’s path to Pennsylvania Ave.
The rumors we hear suggest President Joe Biden wants to barnstorm his way through the Commonwealth this fall to help deliver the state for Harris. But Gov. Shapiro may be the real star of the campaign trail. And if he helps engineer a win in the Keystone state, he would surely have an opportunity to join an eventual Harris-Walz administration. Our sources don’t expect him to take it, though: Operatives within the state believe Shapiro harbors Presidential ambitions. With an early advantage for reelection in 2026, Shapiro may feel his best path to Pennsylvania Avenue is to stay in Pennsylvania for the time being.
