Tapping into the expertise and perspective of Highland Advocacy Group’s network of over 500 bipartisan, in-state operatives, “View from the States” offers you periodic insights into important local trends often overlooked by Inside-the-Beltway “conventional wisdom.”
As the 2024 campaigns begin their stretch run, we will look at key swing states, and how this November will impact next year and beyond. (We previously looked at Pennsylvania and Ohio.)
Candidates try to roll a six…
Nevada has voted blue in the past four presidential elections, but it’s too early for Democrats to count their chips just yet. Highland’s in-state operatives tell us that the Silver State (with its six electoral votes) is very much a toss-up in 2024.
This will be the first presidential cycle since Nevada began automatically registering new residents to vote. Automatic registrants are initially listed as independents by default, but there also has been a shift in Democrats re-registering as independents. As a result, neither party has a clear registration edge and the electorate is carved fairly equally into thirds.
As she has nationally since her ascension to the top spot on the ticket, Kamala Harris has energized the Democratic base (especially women) in Nevada eager for a new voice – and in-state sources tell us that she has assembled a strong, well-established team that understands the state and its politics. The Supreme Court ruled just this week that she won’t have to worry about potential Green Party spoiler Jill Stein, who will not make the state’s ballot thanks to petition signature issues. But Harris will have to contend with a Republican base just as energized as her own.
One factor that could swing Nevada’s six electoral votes is union support. While Harris enjoys near-universal endorsements from organized labor leaders, state operatives report that Donald Trump has made inroads with the rank-and-file membership (particularly in food service, and other non-teacher unions).
U.S. Senate: Rosen hedges bets
Nevada operatives don’t expect the same level of drama from this year’s Senate election, where incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen has consistently led Republican challenger Sam Brown by 8-10 points.
Since winning the primary, Brown has struggled to gain traction. His campaign has cycled through two consulting teams and struggled to raise money. Meanwhile, Rosen has run toward the middle, focusing on swing voter issues (such as the economy and health care) in an effort to pull support from potential Trump/Rosen ticket-splitters.
Playing with house money: Dems seek supermajority
Democrats are firmly in control of the state legislature, and the only question is whether they can emerge from November with a two-thirds supermajority that can override any veto from Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo. With Democrats poised to take the seats they need in the state senate, the battle comes down to two state house districts.
Assembly District 35, near Reno, is an open race to replace Democrat Michelle Gorelow, who won by five points in 2020 but opted against re-election due to a conflict-of-interest scandal involving her work for a non-profit that received state funding. This year pits two medical professionals against each other, as Republican Rebecca Edgeworth, a doctor, faces Democrat Sharifa Wahab, a dentist. Sources on the ground expect a close race, but report that Edgeworth is riding a wave of positive GOP energy.
In Assembly District 25, near Las Vegas, incumbent Democrat Selena La Rue Hatch finds herself in a close race against moderate Republican Diana Sande – and operatives within the state confide that it has put statewide Democrats in a difficult spot. The party needs to hold the seat to build that veto-proof majority. But as a frequent and outspoken critic of members of her own party, La Rue Hatch is deeply unpopular among Democrats.
On the Agenda in 2025
Whether the Democrats have a majority or a supermajority, Highland’s in-state operatives expect the legislature will have a full plate when the next session begins.
For example: Our sources expect calls to create tax incentives to lure new industries and diversify Nevada’s economy. Currently (as you might suspect) the state is heavily reliant on entertainment and mining.
In-state operatives also believe Nevada will take up legislation dealing with artificial intelligence (AI) regulations. This will be a big issue in Nevada because of AI’s utility in automated gaming; live casino workers make up a significant amount of the state workforce.
Education (thanks to failing public schools) and health care(due to a shortage of medical professionals and low reimbursement rates) also figure to be on the agenda.
As Nevada (eventually) goes…
Since 1912, Nevada has sided with the winner in all but two Presidential cycles (1976, 2016). With its electorate so evenly divided, Nevada’s final result could show which candidate has the late momentum to win nationally.
But we may have to wait.
Despite attempts to reform and speed up election reporting statewide, Highland’s sources note that mail-in and absentee ballots could delay results. In the high-stakes 2024 presidential contest, finding out which candidate holds the winning hand may take days or weeks.
