Tapping into the expertise and perspective of Highland Advocacy Group’s network of over 500 bipartisan, in-state operatives, “View from the States” offers you periodic insights into important local trends often overlooked by Inside-the-Beltway “conventional wisdom.”
As the 2024 campaigns begin their stretch run, we will look at key swing states, and how this November will impact next year and beyond. (We previously looked at Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.)
Walkin’ back to Georgia
In 2020, Georgia provided election drama up to – and well after – Election Day. The Peach State voted for the Democratic presidential candidate for the first time since 1992, and the surprise result infamously kicked off a war of words between outgoing President Trump and Gov. Brian Kemp that helped tip two U.S. Senate runoff elections into the Democratic column.
Since then, pundits have had Georgia on their minds, expecting another election night nail-biter.
Hell’s broke loose in Georgia
Highland’s operatives see a tight race, but expect a Trump win.
As is the case in many other states, Georgia’s Democrats were excited and motivated by Vice President Harris’s graduation to the top of the ticket in August. (Early polling had shown President Biden in a bind and way behind, on pace to lose the state handily.) Yet in-state sources report Harris still faces lagging enthusiasm in the areas around Atlanta, Savannah, and Augusta – regions in which she will need to run up the score to have a shot statewide.
Meanwhile, that 2020 feud between Trump and Kemp looks like muddy water under the bridge (at least for now), as they appeared together (and acted civilly) at a recent campaign event. Our sources report that the rift caught the interest of the state’s political networks, but never caused a major split among the Republican grassroots, which has helped both men retain their popularity. Between Trump’s need to carry the state in November and Kemp’s possible future political ambitions, neither one wants to pick at scabs. (Georgia First Lady Marty Kemp is reportedly less forgiving than her husband, but has not been moved to make any public statements yet.)
Instead, sources say that Republicans have been in lockstep and message-focused, criticizing the current administration (of late, that criticism has pointedly included basic functions such as hurricane preparedness).
Thanks to a recent ruling from Fulton County Superior Court Robert McBurney, counties will not have to count ballots by hand on election night – which should prevent the extended drama that followed the 2020contest.
Bang, bang! On the doors
On-the-ground reports suggest that (unlike in other states) the Trump campaign’s ground game has been actively going door-to-door. They’re assisted by the political network of former interim Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who has been focusing on grassroots organization since losing one of the aforementioned runoff elections.
In contrast, in-state sources have not seen much of the vaunted registration and turnout operation built by Stacy Abrams since her second campaign for governor in 2022.
Locked in the punch: Republicans set to hold Congressional, state leg majorities
Beyond the Presidential race, Highland’s in-state operatives do not foresee much election-related drama. Republicans are expected to hold their 9-5 edge in the state’s U.S. House delegation. The GOP also holds safe majorities in the state house (102-78) and state senate. With fewer than half of all legislative seats even drawing a challenger, those numbers won’t move much in one direction or another.
2025: Keeping the lights from going out in Georgia
After the dust clears on the election, our sources tell us the state government has a full docket of issues to handle.
Georgia has done well with economic development, attracting business such as electric vehicle plants, data centers, and battery facilities to the state. But those have increased the need for electricity, so promoting energy generation will be at or near the top of the legislative agenda in 2025.
Other economic development issues are primed to come up, as well, including health care and property insurance rates. Highland’s operatives report that legal/tort reform is a long-standing issue within the state, and expect the legislature to take it on next year setting up a battle between the business community and trial attorneys.
Coming for the number one spot
Sen. Jon Ossoff is up for re-election in 2026, and thanks to term limits the governor’s office will be an open contest.
Sources say that a thin Democratic bench will give the Republican gubernatorial primary winner an advantage in the general election. Attorney General Chris Carr, a Kemp confidant who has taken every opportunity to appear publicly with the Governor in his official capacity, is likely to run, as is Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones. Kemp is closer to Carr but expected to stay out of the race.
For the Senate, Highland’s in-state operatives predict that much depends on the still-popular Kemp, who would be well-positioned to win the GOP nomination. If he chooses not to run, either of Jones or Carr may pursue the seat instead of the governor’s office. But our sources also report that Kelly Loeffler may look to return to the Senate by mobilizing the grassroots network.
Kemp has been playing his cards close to his vest, though, even among close political confidants.
