Tapping into the expertise and perspective of Highland’s network of over 500 bipartisan, in-state operatives, “View from the States” offers you periodic insights into important local trends often overlooked by Inside-the-Beltway “conventional wisdom.”
In this edition, we take a look a look at Virginia, another of the five states with off-year elections – and the underlying political tension that has led to a heated battle for control of the state legislature (and more).
(If you’re interested in off-year elections, check out out our previous View from Kentucky.)
Musical Chairs
Virginia is attracting national attention, with Democrats and Republicans in a heated game of musical chairs for control. The GOP currently holds slim majorities in both houses of the legislature, but the Democrats hold the governor’s mansion. On November 5, the music is going to stop, when (presumably) all the votes are counted.
Both parties are in a tug of war over important issues like gun control and education. The National Rifle Association donated the largest sum of money in Virginia history ($200,000) to Republican House Majority Leader Todd Gilbert. The Democrats have raised even more money, and seem to have political tailwinds after the state legislature failed to act after the Virginia Beach that shooting that shook the state.
And All Your Future Lies Beneath Your Hat
Several races could determine the fate of both parties. However, Highland’s field operatives suggest there is one race, in particular, to keep an eye on.
In the 94th House District, Republican David E. Yancy won in most unusual fashion just two years ago. You may remember that, after multiple recounts, Yancy and his opponent Shelly Simonds had the exact same number of votes. The winner was decided by a random drawing. Simonds and Yancy are going at it again in 2019, and this year’s winner may determine which party holds the House when the dust settles.
Upper House in the Balance
The GOP holds an equally narrow majority in the state Senate. According to our field operatives, two districts are especially worth watching on Tuesday.
The 8th district in Virginia Beach is currently held by Republican Sen. Bill DeSteph. While Second Amendment rights are valued deeply by many Virginians, this district was obviously affected by the Virginia Beach mass shootings in June 2019. The aftermath of that event could have enough of an impact on independents and soft Republicans to allow Democrat Missy Smasal to flip this seat.
Republicans are not only playing defense, though. District 39 incumbent Democrat Sen. George Barker has raised over $210,000 in this cycle, and he’ll need it. Despite that war chest, opponent S.W Hillenburg is banking on grassroots support in a rematch of 2017 – a rematch Hillenberger lost by just five points.
It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over
Democrats clearly have an upper hand heading into Tuesday, but don’t count the GOP out just yet.
One in-state operative reminded us that Democrats’ success in 2015 came, in part, because of the statewide turnout efforts in a gubernatorial year. With no statewide elections, turnout will be lower, giving the GOP a chance of hanging onto control.
Who can map out the various forces at play in one soul?
The results of this election – and control of the state legislature – takes on added importance in light of Virginia’s next round of redistricting. If the Democrats wrest control of both the House and Senate, they will have complete control over the process, likely increasing their advantages in a state which is already turning blue. If the GOP holds onto even just one house of the legislature, it at least gives them a seat at the redistricting table.
