Tapping into the expertise and perspective of Highland’s network of over 500 bipartisan, in-state operatives, “View from the States” offers you periodic insights into the important local trends often overlooked by Inside-the-Beltway “conventional wisdom.”
In this edition, we look at Tennessee, where a reliably red state features a Senate race worth keeping an eye on.
Two candidates embracing Trump?
Republicans face a favorable Senate map nationally, but they still must win in places like Tennessee to retain their narrow majority. Recent polling and buzz on the ground indicate this race may become too close for comfort for the GOP. Popular former Governor Phil Bredesen (D) and current Congressman Marsha Blackburn (R) both easily won their respective primaries. (And no, that isn’t a typo; Highland’s contacts in Tennessee note that Blackburn prefers the term “Congressman.”) Recent public polls have gone back and forth, at times showing each candidate with a slight advantage.
The Blackburn campaign may have dodged a bullet when businessman Bill Lee defeated Congressman Diane Black in the gubernatorial primary. (Yes, Black shares her colleague’s preference title.) Tennessee Democrats likely would have relished the opportunity to run simultaneously against Black and Blackburn (both strong conservatives) in order to motivate their base to turn out against Trump allies.
Both Bredesen and Blackburn are from the state’s biggest and most famous city, Nashville; Bredesen is a former mayor to boot. However, Blackburn has worked hard to cultivate a lot of statewide support. She also has fully embraced President Trump’s agenda – which may be wise. President Trump carried Tennessee with 60.7% in 2016, and, according to polls released within the last month, his job approval ratings in Tennessee outpace his national numbers by about ten points.
This relative popularity hasn’t just given Blackburn cover. Bredesen has also signaled at times he would support President Trump in an effort to appeal to independents and those moderate Republicans he badly needs to win.
Turning on Eastern TN
Highland’s on-the-ground political operatives report that eastern Tennessee will ultimately decide this race. In 2002, Bredesen was able to hold his own in eastern Tennessee (particularly in Knox County, home of the University of Tennessee) on his way to his first narrow gubernatorial victory.
This year, the independent and moderate/establishment Republican voters living here are critical to Bredesen’s chances once again. He’ll need them to buck their own party in a state where President Trump enjoys some of his highest approval ratings.
That’s not so far-fetched: Keep in mind, this is a state that has sent the likes of Howard Baker, Al Gore, Lamar Alexander, Bill Frist, and Bob Corker to the Senate to represent them within the last 30 years.
Frequent Trump critic Corker has said he will vote for Blackburn, but will not campaign against his good friend Bredesen. As such, it’s not looking like he will be much of a factor in this race.
What about those tariffs?
But bear-hugging all of President Trump’s policies could hurt Blackburn, assuming enough voters are paying attention. International trade and exports are vital to Tennessee’s farmers and its auto manufacturers like General Motors, Nissan, and Volkswagen.
Agricultural production generates more than $3 billion annually according to the Tennessee Department of Agriculture while 87 of Tennessee’s 95 counties have auto operations and exports approach $6 billion annually.
If middle-of-the-road Tennessee voters get nervous about the effects of trade policies on the state, Bredesen will have an opening to portray himself as a reasonable, thoughtful check on the President’s policies.
Highland Advocacy Group is a full-service grassroots and grasstops consulting firm that boasts a best-in-class national field network of operatives in every state and congressional district.
