Tapping into the expertise and perspective of Highland’s network of over 500 bipartisan, in-state operatives, “View from the States” offers you periodic insights into important local trends often overlooked by Inside-the-Beltway “conventional wisdom.” In this edition, we look at Maryland, which is on its way to reelecting a Republican Governor for a second term.
Given its deep blue political standing, Maryland (even though parts are technically inside the yet-to-be-drained swamp) is often overlooked by political pundits and media influencers. But in the two most recent public polls (one conducted by the Washington Post/University of Maryland and the other by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies), Republican Governor Larry Hogan was ahead of his Democratic rival Ben Jealous by 20 and 18 percentage points, respectively.
How is it that Hogan will (seemingly) cruise to victory in a deep-blue state during a blue-wave mid-term?
The answer, according to Highland’s operatives on the ground in Maryland, is three-fold.
One, he has taken a page out of former President Bill Clinton’s book and played small ball on the policy front throughout his first term. By staying away from big, sweeping initiatives, he has avoided potentially controversial and contentious battles.
Two, Governor Hogan has benefitted from a weak, underfunded campaign by his Democrat rival, Ben Jealous. As Jealous’s campaign has sputtered, Hogan has run a solid, straightforward, “do no harm” campaign with few to no errors, in line with his governing style.
Three, he takes every opportunity to say when he disagrees with President Trump.
Unlike other candidates running in statewide races where Trump enjoys strong support (Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee, Josh Hawley in Missouri, and Kevin Cramer in North Dakota) Hogan has kept his distance and been his own man.
Geography and Unions
Highland’s in-state operatives foresee Governor Hogan running up as much as 75% of the vote in his base counties in western Maryland and the Eastern Shore. Like any Republican statewide candidate, he needs the raw vote totals there to offset strong Democratic turnout in Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties and Baltimore City.
Hogan also cuts into part of Jealous’s potential base by enjoying a unique level of support from organized labor.
Laborers’ International Union of North America (LIUNA) endorsed Hogan. as have the United Association of Plumbers, Pipefitters, Sprinklerfitters, Welders and HVAC Technicians (UA), several steamfitters and plumbers locals, and the International Association of Firefighters (IAFF).
For national observers, the only thing left is to watch in the Governor’s race how wide a margin this Republican in a blue state will run up. But for Maryland Republicans, there’s an important question about how far Hogan’s coattails will reach.
Drive for Five
Republicans are waging a campaign called the “Drive for Five” — an effort to flip five seats in the state Senate.
Holding just 14 out of 47 seats, the GOP is nowhere near gaining control of the chamber. But gaining five more would put the Democrats under the 60% threshold needed to override a governor’s veto.
Republicans are targeting eight Senate seats in their Drive for Five:
- District 3 (Frederick County)
- District 8 (Baltimore County)
- District 12 (Howard and Baltimore Counties)
- District 28 (Charles County)
- District 30 (Anne Arundel County)
- District 32 (Anne Arundel County)
- District 38 (Worcester County)
- District 42 (Baltimore County)
While it wouldn’t give them a springboard to initiate policies, flipping five of these eight seats would give Republicans enough votes to block potential party-line veto overrides in a presumptive second term for Gov. Hogan.
