Tapping into the expertise and perspective of Highland’s network of over 500 bipartisan, in-state operatives, “View from the States” offers you periodic insights into important local trends often overlooked by Inside-the-Beltway “conventional wisdom.”
In this edition, we take a look a look at Kentucky, another of the five states with off-year elections – and the underlying political tension that has led to a heated gubernatorial debate.
The Bluegrass State’s Own Trump
Countless Republicans have attempted to channel and replicate President Donald Trump’s style and appeal since he first descended down the Trump Tower escalator to announce his candidacy for President in June of 2015. But perhaps no state Republican in the country has matched Trump better than Gov. Matt Bevin of Kentucky.
Like Trump, Bevin has a background in business, ran as a political outsider, and his come-from-behind win in the 2015 gubernatorial race shocked the political world of Kentucky when he won 52.5% to 43.8% over Attorney General Jack Conway.
Bevin hit the ground running, signing executive orders on right-to-work, repealing wage laws, and approving pro-life bills. As one of Highland’s in-state sources put it, Gov. Bevin “went from tapping on the political fish tank to turning Kentucky politics into a free-market think tank.”
Bevin’s policies lowered unemployment and the state income tax – making living more affordable. But with the grand receptions from business owners came teacher protests that made national headlines. In-state operatives have told us that it has gotten personal, too: Teachers have spoken out against the Governor not only because of a bill which would cap their pensions but also because of insensitive comments he made about them.
An Apple That Apparently Did Fall Pretty Far
During Gov. Bevin’s term, Democrat Andy Beshear has served as the Attorney General. The two positions are elected separately, and Beshear has publicly battled Gov. Bevin in courtrooms, newspaper headlines, and of course on Twitter. This has led to the eventual and expected clash in this year’s gubernatorial election.
Though he has earned respect with several constituencies, chief among them public school teachers and union members, Highland’s sources on the ground tell us that Beshear has challenges relating to the average Kentuckian. This is all the more surprising because his father, Steve Beshear, was a very popular Governor for two terms from 2007-2015.
The State of the Race
With Election Day on November 5, the race has grown predictably heated. Campaign messaging has generally been centered around health care and education. Bevin has been trying to position himself as fiscally conservative, while Beshear is aligning with national Democrats on healthcare. However, as the candidates look for an edge in the final days, kitchen table issues are more frequently set aside for late-night “Twitter beefs” between the candidates. Bevin has been caught on record saying Beshears’ family is a disgrace while Beshear has called Bevin a bully.
In the most recent poll, Bevin and Beshear are now tied. With an approval rating of only 33% – currently, the lowest of any Governor in the U.S. – being backed by President Trump should help Bevin tremendously in a state where the President’s numbers remain strong. We also hear the help is going to continue right up until Election Day when President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence plan to fly down and hold a rally in Kentucky.
The Upshot
With the Attorney General’s father still beloved in Kentucky, some voters may support Beshear unless and until they are reminded that he isn’t his father. Even so, Beshear will need to drive up turnout in urban centers like Louisville and Lexington. For Gov. Bevin, President Trump’s support may ironically not be enough to overcome a “Trump-like” personality many voters view as caustic. Highland’s field operatives predict that Bevins is in a good position to hang on – as Kentuckians will end up voting for him to support his politics even as they disapprove of his antics.
