Tapping into the expertise and perspective of Highland’s network of over 500 bipartisan, in-state operatives, “View from the States” offers you periodic insights into important local trends often overlooked by Inside-the-Beltway “conventional wisdom.” In this edition, we take an early look at Iowa, where the Democrats are starting their fight for the 2020 nomination.
The voters of Iowa didn’t need Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s New Year’s Eve exploratory committee announcement to know the 2020 Presidential cycle has already started.
Democratic hopefuls crisscrossed the Hawkeye state throughout the 2018 midterm cycle – and they’re becoming regulars at party events in the early going of 2019, too. Early indicators suggest a crowded field, much like Republicans saw for their open nominating contest in 2016, and person-to-person retail politics will separate which candidates flame out and which ones catch fire.
Highland’s Iowa operatives expect the state’s first-in-the-nation caucuses to take on an even greater role than usual in 2020 for two main reasons:
The hurdles are lower. With a crowded Democratic field expected, a candidate may need just 15% of the vote for a strong showing.
Early momentum could help elsewhere. As caucusing starts in Iowa, California’s vote-by-mail primary will start as well. California’s media markets are notoriously expensive, so a win (or even a top-three finish) in the caucus would offer critically valuable earned media.
Warren Makes Key Hires
Beyond her opening statement, Warren has fired opening salvos with key staff hires. Team Warren now boasts Kane Miller, campaign manager for Abby Finkenauer’s successful 2018 Congressional campaign in IA-01; Brendan Summers, who led the 2016 caucus campaign for Sen. Bernie Sanders; and Janice Rottenberg, leader of the Iowa Democratic party’s coordinated 2018 campaign.
Miller’s hiring could be particularly interesting; Highland’s operatives point out that while endorsements from established, old-guard pols may not carry as much influence as they previously have, the young and charismatic Rep. Finkenauer could help candidates establish the perception of popularity with younger, more activist-oriented voters.
Look for other serious contenders to follow suit soon, as getting good staffers in place is critical.
Sanders Stays Strong; Biden Wonders “What If?”; Early Buzz for Beto
Sanders maintains a strong level of support after his 2016 showing and has senior campaign staff waiting in the wings.
In-state intelligence suggests that former Vice President Joe Biden has made overtures that strongly suggest he’ll run (and that he regrets his decision to bow out of the fray in 2016). He has a small core of support from previous primary runs in 2008 and even 1988, but has previously had trouble being taken seriously in Iowa. This time, however, many caucus-goers have electability in mind; and for the first time, Biden would bring to Iowa his experience as a two-term Vice President.
Operatives on the ground report that party activists are intrigued by Beto O’Rourke’s ability to articulate progressive stances without sounding like a militant ideologue. Somewhat surprisingly, his limited experience (three terms in Congress and a close-but-losing Senate bid) doesn’t appear to be a deal breaker.
Keys to Victory: Big Labor, Small Towns
The competition will be fierce for one of the top three spots, and Highland’s Iowa sources point to organized labor and teachers’ organizations as the major voting blocs statewide.
Operatives suggest that some of the underdog candidates might take a page from an unlikely source: Rick Santorum’s 34-vote victory in the 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus. Santorum held a high number of small events and coffees in rural areas, often meeting with handfuls of voters. This strategy is time intensive, but it can be worth it – each of Iowa’s 99 counties elects delegates, so they’re all important. A physical presence in out-of-the-way towns and counties can pile up just enough pockets of support to claim victory.
The Democrats who would unseat President Donald Trump will have to start collecting that support soon. Currently scheduled for February 3, 2020, the Iowa caucuses are more than a year away — but as the great Yogi Berra once said, it gets late early out there.
