Tapping into the expertise and perspective of Highland’s network of over 500 bipartisan, in-state operatives, “View from the States” offers you periodic insights into important local trends often overlooked by Inside-the-Beltway “conventional wisdom.”
Emergency COVID-19 pandemic measures are upending normalcy all throughout the country, creating ripples that affect families, businesses, and other facets of life – including political realities. In this edition, we turn our attention to Arizona – a state with a compelling Senate race and a possibility of becoming a Presidential swing state in the 2020 cycle.
COVID-19 in Arizona
Like the vast majority of other states, Arizona has declared a state of emergency and issued a statewide shelter-in-place order. The legislature has been officially adjourned until April 13, and that date is likely to see an extension. While restaurants and schools have been closed, gatherings have not yet been restricted.
The state has taken some proactive policy measures, passing six total bills relating to the ongoing crisis. In total, Arizona has voted to spend $110 million to prop up areas such as unemployment funds and school employees. Lawmakers have clashed on exact dollar figures for emergency unemployment benefits. Republicans are supportive of extending and expediting unemployment benefits, but they don’t share the Democrats’ desire to raise the weekly individual total from $240.
While they remain closed, Arizona has given schools and school districts some leeway on adherence to state regulations. They will be able to decide on a minimum number of school days, revise testing standards, and take any action needed to convert to online work should they remain open.
Biden Stays Hot In the Desert
Former Vice President Joe Biden celebrated St. Patrick’s Day with a primary win in the Grand Canyon State. This win was no surprise for the presumptive Democratic nominee, but Highland’s in-state operatives tell us that many of Arizona’s establishment Democrats are breathing a sigh of relief. Our sources said that many Democrats worried about being connected to Senator Bernie Sanders (and his hard-left supporters) during their reelection bids. For Arizona Democrats, Biden’s win puts them at ease knowing a familiar face is in the driver’s seat.
California Leaving
Over the years, western states have seen massive influxes of Californians relocating to escape rising costs of living. In 2019, almost 70,000 Californians packed up and left – a 4.6% increase over the previous year and a seven-year high. While Texas, Oregon, and Colorado are popular destinations, more than 800,000 have moved to Arizona since 2010.
Are all those displaced Californians starting to change Arizona from red to blue? Highland’s Arizona operatives tell us it isn’t quite that simple.
Pundits have often mischaracterized the state as “conservative” because it has shown up red during general elections. But state operatives describe it as a more independent, “freewheeling” state that harbors disdain for extremism – from both Democrats and Republicans. Incoming Californians aren’t making the state any more liberal, but they are solidifying the political center. On a national level, that could still mean implications for candidates in November.
Trump Treads Cautiously
In the upcoming Presidential contest, counties to keep an eye on are Maricopa (home to Phoenix and suburbs), Yavapai, and especially Pinal.
Our sources tell us that Pinal is going to be a critical battleground. While Pinal went Republican in 2018, this county is home to many of California’s transplants; it could be the most obvious place where the moderating influence of California shows. In fact, if Pinal goes blue, President Trump could lose Arizona.
Astronomical Fundraising / Schweikert’s Hot Seat
The race between Senator Martha McSally and Mark Kelly is overflowing with money. While McSally has put up impressive fundraising numbers with $12 million raised in 2019, Kelly raised $20 million in the same time period.
Highland’s field operatives don’t like McSally’s chances; they say she may be perceived as too extreme. She has already had to fend off critiques against her support for President Trump during her reelection bid.
Highland’s on-the-ground sources tell us to keep an eye on the 6th district Congressional race between incumbent Rep. David Schweikert and his challengers, mainly Hiral Tipirneni. While the district should normally be an easy win for the GOP, Schweikert’s legal battles with the House Ethics Committee have cost him over $100,000 in legal fees. Our operatives also tell us that as the 6th District sees a demographic change, Schweikert’s past voting records don’t necessarily reflect his constituents anymore.
