Tapping into the expertise and perspective of Highland’s network of over 500 bipartisan, in-state operatives, “View from the States” offers you periodic insights into the important local trends often overlooked by Inside-the-Beltway “conventional wisdom.”
In this edition, we take an early look at New Hampshire, where the Democrats are starting their fight for the 2020 nomination. Let’s dive into the latest from the Granite State…
March Madness in New Hampshire
With just over 10 months to go until the New Hampshire primary (it’s currently scheduled for February 11, 2020) the list of Democratic presidential hopefuls is only getting longer with the recent addition of former Congressman Beto O’Rourke of Texas. Many candidates are already hiring staff and making multiple visits to the first-in-the-nation primary state, which has often served as a make-or-break for candidates seeking their party’s nomination. At least eight candidates were scheduled to visit New Hampshire just last weekend
Further complicating in-state strategy and increasing the competition for votes is the fact that New Hampshire has an open primary, meaning the state’s independent voters are allowed to vote for one of the Democratic candidates on Primary Day.
Warren Lagging
By all accounts, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is flailing badly even though she’s from a neighboring state (whose huge media market dominates New Hampshire). It’s a crowded field for sure and there are ten months to go so this dynamic could change, but whatever Senator Warren has done thus far in the Granite State isn’t working. She is simply not energizing the base as much as the other top tier contenders.
Bernie Still the One to Beat
Another neighbor, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is still the guy to beat. His energy on the ground is real and he has sustained his activist momentum from the 2016 campaign (which is fairly remarkable). However, the media – national and New England – doesn’t quite seem to want to give him the credit for this, at least not yet. Our in-state sources expect Sanders to be among the top finishers if not the outright winner.
Beto Gaining Traction
There is a definite interest in the youthful former Congressman from Texas who recently drove himself to and through the Granite State. The Democrats in New Hampshire are drawn to his youth and energy and he has the potential to do very well there. He has broad appeal that is crossing demographic lines with New Hampshire voters.
Booking Office Space
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker is ramping up operations. In-state operatives note that his campaign is setting up shop in the same building that previously housed offices for Maggie Hassan’s 2012 gubernatorial bid and John Kasich’s 2016 Presidential campaign. (It’s a familiar destination for local pizza delivery drivers, no doubt.)
The Wild Card
Former Vice President Joe Biden is a strong variable here, in-state operatives tell us. While he could be the 800-pound gorilla in the race, he has never run an effective presidential race on his own. He has also never run as a former Vice President, so there could be a lane for him if he can secure establishment support in New Hampshire. Since the state and local elected officials and key activists have yet to begin choosing sides, Vice President Biden could enter the race in April or May and start to gobble up the support of the likes of Lou D’Allesandro, the “Dean of the New Hampshire Senate.” The question is: Can “Uncle Joe” grow it from there?
What About the Republicans?
The GOP may have some action in New Hampshire, too. Expect former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld to kick off his primary challenge to President Trump in New Hampshire next month. Highland’s operatives tell us that Weld could garner as much as 20% of the vote in New Hampshire, but that is likely his high-water mark in any state outside of his home state of Massachusetts.
Look Out For a Changing Field
Despite the glut of seemingly viable candidates, and the hometown favorite Sanders, critical New Hampshire support may turn on whether Biden jumps in or other candidates (such as Warren) jump out before campaigning ramps up farther.
