Tapping into the expertise and perspective of Highland’s network of over 500 bipartisan, in-state operatives, “View from the States” offers you periodic insights into the important local trends often overlooked by Inside-the-Beltway “conventional wisdom.”
In this edition, we look at North Dakota, which features a hotly contested Senate race as well as the burning… err… simmering marijuana issue.
North Dakota: An obvious GOP Senate pickup… right?
North Dakota looks like a prime opportunity for Republicans to pick up a Senate seat, padding their upper-house majority in a difficult election cycle.
The race sets up nicely for three-term Rep. Kevin Cramer to unseat incumbent Senator Heidi Heitkamp. The state has been trending Republican and went deep red in the last Presidential election. Plenty of right-leaning outside groups will view North Dakota as a good investment, so Cramer figures to have help.
But as my on-the-ground sources remind me, you could have made that exact forecast in 2012 before Heitkamp beat Rep. Rick Berg 50.2% to 49%. She won despite Mitt Romney carrying the state with 58% and Jack Dalrymple winning the governor’s mansion with 63%. Heitkamp’s team rather effectively painted Berg as an ambitious politician. It was particularly resonant with the independent-minded North Dakota electorate.
Heitkamp bucked North Dakota’s GOP trend in 2012.
Style versus issues
This year, Heitkamp needs to identify and mobilize ticket-splitters– the types who chose both her and Romney in 2012 and voted for George W. Bush and Byron Dorgan in 2004. She will look to use her skills as a retail politician to connect with voters; my in-state operative informs me she has already launched a series “listening sessions” throughout the state.
As she did during her 2012 race with Berg, Heitkamp will look to create a wedge between voters and her GOP opponent on style and tone – which means her campaign will look to jump on any rhetorical missteps or off-the-cuff comments Cramer makes on the campaign trail. A veteran of North Dakota politics predicts the Heitkamp campaign will have human trackers on Cramer at every public appearance waiting for that slip-up.
For his part, Cramer must paint Heitkamp as out of step with voters on the issues and frame her as a rubber stamp for national Democratic leaders.
Likable, with an excellent reputation for retail-level politics, Heitkamp can mitigate that message. She would be smart to buck her party on a major issue and make her independence known to her constituents.
Side-effects of marijuana?
Given Heitkamp’s thin margin in 2012, it’s worth looking at factors that could create altered states of turnout. After legalizing medical marijuana in 2016, a proposed state law to permit recreational use may see the ballot this fall.
Unlike previous failed attempts to get legalization on the ballot in the state, this year’s effort seems to have momentum. Turnout efforts in support of the referendum could have side effects – so when reading polls from North Dakota, keep an eye on how younger voters or typically less-engaged demographics are breaking.
The proposed law is broader than most recreational marijuana initiatives, setting 21 as the age of legal use but otherwise eschewing specific regulations on possession or sale. Supporters are currently gathering the 13,452 signatures needed for the measure to reach the November ballot. The submission deadline is July 9.
Highland Advocacy Group is a full-service grassroots and grasstops consulting firm that boasts a best-in-class national field network of operatives in every state and congressional district. Visit us at www.HighlandAdvocacy.com.
